All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay

His months-long efforts to neuter the opposition ahead of this weekend’s win suggest that Turkey is shifting closer to a Putin-style autocracy than an illiberal European democracy.

A panel of journalists and scholars discuss the policy implications of various scenarios that might emerge from the final round of Turkey’s election.

President Erdogan has tried to reshape the country in his own image, as socially conservative, politically Islamist, and Middle Eastern, with the ultimate goal of reviving its great power status.

Western gestures on trade and defense could reinforce a pro-democratic outcome and counter interference by Vladimir Putin.

Watch an expert webcast as scholars and journalists preview Turkey's historic 2023 elections and their implications for Turkish policy, the wider Middle East, and Washington's relationship with Ankara.

In this video, Beyer Family Fellow Soner Cagaptay provides context for the upcoming election and assesses Erdogan's prospects for success.

A closer look at how the levers of state—and powerful friends—could help Erdogan win his toughest election yet.

Opinion polls offer hope for the challengers, but Erdogan's media control and other factors could foil their efforts to finally topple the president and his ruling bloc.

Erdogan's stance has been pro-Ukrainian but not anti-Russian, enabling him to strike a delicate balance between NATO expectations, Moscow’s economic lifeline, and domestic political pressures.

The president might find the current situation ominously similar to two decades ago, when a combination of devastating natural disaster and deep public dissatisfaction swept his Islamist faction to power.

A panel of experts offers on-the-ground insights from the disaster zone and discusses the political and policy consequences of the still-unfolding humanitarian crisis.

Once Ankara meets the initial challenge of determining an election date amid unimaginable human tragedy, it will face a campaign season dominated by debates over the conduct of relief efforts and the government’s level of responsibility for the growing death toll.

The key to an “F-16s for NATO expansion” agreement lies in the sequencing, with President Biden facing congressional opposition and President Erdogan dealing with economic and election challenges.

Although Ankara will likely approve the Nordic expansion down the road, hurdles remain for Sweden, and Russia may play the spoiler’s role unless Washington facilitates the process.

Turkey’s president faces a reinvigorated opposition at home, but he is trying to show he can still win elections while also playing Russia, the United States, and Europe against one another.

Despite supporting Ukraine militarily, President Erdogan has crucial political and economic reasons for preserving good ties with Moscow, so he is unlikely to take any actions in the Black Sea that are not strictly laid out in the Montreux Convention.

The Ukraine war has not only reaffirmed Erdogan’s remarkable political survival skills, but also highlighted the degree to which Ankara’s improved diplomatic standing is traceable to its success in exporting an innovative drone-centered military operational approach.

Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.

The Turkish leader has been trying to leverage Sweden and Finland’s accession to weaken international support for the YPG in Syria, but he may be content with symbolic concessions that boost his reelection chances.

Trade volume has soared and projects like the development of Sudan’s Suakin Port have drawn notice, but Ankara faces economic headwinds in its bid to keep the momentum going.