All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson

A recently leaked document—if genuine—may indicate substantial internal skepticism toward the regime’s handling of the current domestic crisis, and perhaps even pressure for limited reforms.

The regime still has additional means of making the crackdown even more lethal, and parts of the country are potentially primed to take up arms in response, with uncertain consequences on the ground.

Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well.

Watch an expert panel discussion of the political, diplomatic, economic, social, and strategic implications of the 2022 World Cup for Qatar and the wider Middle East.

A closer look at what funds would actually be accessible and what impact they would have on Iran’s economy.

The government seems to believe the economy will grow significantly even without sanctions relief or increased oil revenue.

Three Institute scholars discuss the fallout from Kabul, with special focus on the consequences for global jihadism, Iranian policy, and regional responses.

Mass support for reformists has disappeared among Iran’s severely disenchanted electorate, leaving Hemmati and his circle with little means of avoiding dismal turnout and vote tallies.

Read or watch an expert conversation on the immediate and long-term effects of the Islamic Republic’s response to the pandemic. How will Iranian politics change? How much aid can Tehran get under sanctions? How will the global economic slowdown affect daily life there?

Washington often objects to loans that it deems insufficiently rigorous, but its blocking attempts usually fail—and Iran has no need for the funds anyway.

Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the world’s largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices.

Mass funerals aside, his image as the quintessential Iranian nationalist made most Middle Easterners wary or actively hostile toward him, so the United States is unlikely to face popular reprisals following his death.

Rouhani has taken a remarkably austere fiscal approach ahead of the looming parliamentary election, but the country’s economic situation is still not sustainable over the long run.

The Supreme Leader faces tough choices about who to blame for the protests, and what impact they should have on policy toward the United States.

The demonstrations indicate widespread popular rejection of the political system, but this same system remains well organized to deflect and counter unrest.

The Supreme Leader regards his rule as the central feature of the Islamic Revolution, so the latest White House order will seem like a shot at the entire system.

Washington should phase out the oil waivers carefully and prevent Chabahar port from becoming an escape valve for Iran.

Neither blanket extension nor wholesale cancellation is the best course, but several of the expiring waivers would serve U.S. interests if properly—and publicly—revised.

The practical effects may be limited to minor issues such as visa regulations, while the symbolic implications are not in Tehran's favor.