All Policy Analysis by Louis Dugit-Gros

As Moscow grapples with battlefield losses and other challenges, traditional Russian clients are considering alternative sources, emerging exporters are amplifying their sales pitches, and governments are building up their domestic defense industrial bases.

Tunisia’s structural roadblocks, public skepticism, and ongoing domestic crises have combined to limit its relationship with China, leaving Beijing unable to jumpstart its typical large-scale projects and investments.

The West is in the middle of a steadily escalating nuclear crisis, even if policymakers are reluctant to admit it.

The hard lessons learned in Syria have given European leaders the confidence and tools they needed to respond forcefully in Ukraine.

Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.

The French-sponsored event could be a welcome starting point for wider cooperation between Iraq’s new government and its Arab neighbors—particularly Jordan—but only time will tell whether agreements made there come to fruition.

Although their ultimate effects are uncertain, the new sanctions are a powerful signal that European governments are readier than ever to confront the regime’s human rights violations, drone deliveries to Russia, and nuclear stalling.

Russia will continue using the Black Sea corridors as leverage, so Western countries and their partners should prepare alternative routes and other assistance as counter-leverage.

Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.

Beijing’s use of intertwined civil and military tools in the Gulf mirrors its activity closer to home, but the West can readily counter this influence by capitalizing on the region’s desire for diversified partnerships.

Although alternatives to the UN mechanism carry uncertainties of their own, continuing the broken status quo will only boost Moscow, endanger Syrian civilians, and help the Assad regime avoid sanctions—not to mention whetting his appetite for natural gas shipments.

The Ukraine war has greatly boosted their diplomatic and military cooperation, but lingering friction over Syria, Libya, and Mediterranean issues will need to be handled carefully if this rapprochement is to endure.

As the Ukraine war creates a critical juncture for European security, France and its partners are pulling military resources out of Mali, raising questions about how best to address persistent terrorist threats and growing Russian footprints in the surrounding regions.

Three French experts survey the evolution of twenty-first-century counterterrorism and assess how the struggles against jihadist and far-right violence need to adapt in the coming years.