All Policy Analysis by Ben Fishman

Russia’s domestic military crisis could hold significant consequences for its regional operations, from heightening the risk of clashes with U.S. forces in Syria to putting a public face on its destabilizing activities in Libya.

Oil is flowing and warring factions are not actively warring, but this illusion of stability can disappear at any time unless further steps are taken to produce a legitimate government.

Turkey’s tragic earthquake and Egypt’s economic crisis may lead both governments to ease their conflicts over Libya.

Given the tall task of managing public dissent and meeting IMF reform requirements without angering his military base, President Sisi may be more willing to shift his problematic stances on human rights and foreign policy.

Massive U.S. investment has failed to improve outcomes since the Arab Spring uprisings. A more targeted, sensitive approach could yield better results and promote regional stability.

Although climate issues will by definition headline the latest COP summit, Egypt’s human rights record, simmering protest movement, and questionable policies in neighboring Libya will provide plenty of additional fodder for Biden’s discussions with Sisi.

Of all the conflict-riven countries in the Middle East, Libya still has the greatest potential for resolution in a way that could benefit the wider region, Europe, and the United States.

An infographic illustrating President Saied's controversial political moves since summer 2021 and the steps U.S. officials have taken to discourage authoritarian backsliding.

Increased Saudi production will mean little if Libyan production remains unreliable, so it's time to play hardball with Haftar.

The kingdom can only transition from its crisis footing to a period of sustained economic growth if it receives more assistance over the coming period.

Finding a compromise timeline for elections will be delicate, but the recent thaw in relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi removes a significant external impediment to progress.

Washington and Europe need to clearly signal that they will not endorse any new governing arrangements until all local actors peacefully adhere to a negotiated political roadmap.

Residents of the beleaguered country desperately need electricity, but a U.S.-Arab scheme carries complications that could benefit Syria's Assad regime.

To address the region’s democracy gap, Washington needs to develop consistent messaging on reform objectives and help its partners focus on achievable goals such as protecting free speech, dissidents, and civil society.

Authorities have come too far to risk resuming violence or dividing the country with a rushed, heavily boycotted vote.

Washington should publicly emphasize the importance of preserving hard-won progress on political pluralism and human rights, while privately conveying that Tunis must return to the constitutional framework in order to receive MCC and IMF funding.

If Libya rushes to elections without resolving its long list of contested constitutional issues, it risks creating a more dangerous form of the legitimacy crisis currently unfolding next door.

The visit will set the stage for future U.S. assistance negotiations and allow King Abdullah to express his views on Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy and other regional issues, while the White House can bolster the relationship and (quietly) push for achievable reforms.

To break the political deadlock, begin the withdrawal of disruptive foreign forces, and deploy ceasefire monitors, U.S. officials will need to hold some hard conversations with the UN envoy and all of the international and local actors on the ground.

The U.S. does not always have to be at the head of the table, but it has to be present and ready to jump in if progress stalls on issues such as advancing political dialogue, holding elections on time, and addressing Russia’s worrisome military encroachment.