Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Saudi Deputy Prime Minister Prince Abdullah greets Iranian President Khatami in Jeddah in May 1999 - source: Reuters

Clarifying the Status of Previous Iran-Saudi Agreements

The steps taken to actually implement Riyadh and Tehran’s new normalization accord bear close watching given the uncertainties surrounding their 1998 and 2001 agreements.

Mar 16, 2023

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Faris Almaari

Newspapers at a shop in Tehran display headlines about the China-brokered Iran-Saudi deal in March 2023 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

What Beijing’s Iran-Saudi Deal Means—and What It Doesn’t

China brokered the agreement, but this does not signal a new Beijing-led order in the Middle East—in fact, it could make regional tensions worse.

Mar 15, 2023

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Henry Rome
Grant Rumley

Crown Prince Muhammad and President Xi walking in Riyadh.

Articles & Testimony

With Saudi-Iran Diplomacy, Is China Pushing the US Aside in the Middle East?

The surprise development may have more to do with resolving the Yemen war than rebuking the Biden administration, but the full implications will take time to register.

Mar 13, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Protesters wave flags and placards in front of the Knesset to demonstrate their opposition to judicial reforms proposed by the coalition government of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu - source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

The National Security Implications of Israel's Judicial Debate

A panel of former senior Israeli officials discusses how the convulsive domestic debate may affect vital issues related to military preparedness, Iranian nuclear advancement, Palestinian terrorism, and more.

Mar 8, 2023

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David Makovsky
Shimrit Meir
Yaakov Amidror
Uzi Dayan
Zohar Palti

Russian President Vladimi Putin tours an exhibit of Tsarist weapons on display in the UAE in 2007 - source: Reuteurs

Articles & Testimony

Russia Uses Middle Eastern Ties to Mitigate Isolation

By taking largely ambivalent stances on the Ukraine war, states in the region have helped ease the effects of international sanctions against Moscow.

Mar 7, 2023

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Articles & Testimony

It Is Time for a New Hezbollah Policy

Growing domestic blowback presents a strategic opportunity to alter the balance of power in Lebanon, shrink Iran’s long-range influence, and promote true political diversity within the Shia community.

Mar 7, 2023

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Currency Collapse May Not Lead to Diplomatic Desperation

The rial keeps plummeting, but policymakers should not assume this will spur Tehran to scale back its nuclear negotiating demands.

Mar 7, 2023

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Henry Rome

USAF ground crew directs a B-1 Lancer bomber

Articles & Testimony

Iran Needs to Believe America’s Threat

Four steps could help check Tehran’s progress toward a nuclear bomb and avoid the regional risks of a unilateral Israeli attack.

Mar 5, 2023

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Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

The Treacherous Triangle of Syria, Iran, and Russia

If the Assad regime's two main allies emerge victorious in Syria and Ukraine, U.S. adversaries will likely conclude that the pros of challenging Washington ultimately outweigh the negatives.

Spring 2023

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Anna Borshchevskaya

The Taliban flag on display in Kabul, Afghanistan

Brief Analysis

Iran Formalizes Ties with the Taliban

The two governments have been engaging for months on standard diplomatic issues, but the new embassy handover may prove more worrisome given that they are both rogue regimes capable of coordinating against U.S. interests in the region.

Mar 3, 2023

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Fikra Forum

Opposition in the Iranian Diaspora and among Iranian Reformers: The Case of Mousavi

As an Iranian opposition coalesces in the diaspora, challenges loom on the horizon. How the diaspora approaches reformists inside Iran calling for a new constitution will help demonstrate just how cohesive Iran’s disparate opposition groups can become.

Mar 3, 2023

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Majid Nikouei

Articles & Testimony

Is Iran Ready to Build a Nuclear Bomb or Not?

The Biden administration’s mixed messages about the significance of new enrichment revelations will make it more difficult to decide next steps.

Mar 1, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Yemen Peace Accord Appears Increasingly Possible

A deal would leave the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in control but allow the Saudis to disengage from a costly and intractable war, potentially opening up further diplomatic possibilities.

Feb 28, 2023

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Simon Henderson

In-Depth Reports

Iran’s Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy

The regime's latest step on uranium enrichment should compel the United States and its partners to snap back sanctions, bolster military deterrence, and plan for potential crisis scenarios.

Feb 28, 2023

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Michael Singh

Arash-2 drones (Iran), Patriot launcher (U.S.)

In-Depth Reports

Striking Back:

Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East

The regime’s drone and missile forces pose a stark threat to the Gulf states and Israel, necessitating a firmer, more cohesive U.S.-led response.

Feb 26, 2023

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Kenneth McKenzie Jr.

Articles & Testimony

Iran Enriched Uranium to 84 Percent—But Can It Make a Nuclear Bomb?

The new reported level is well beyond most people’s “red line” and will likely draw much attention at the IAEA's March meeting.

Feb 20, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Iranian president Raisi is greeted upon his arrival for a state visit to China in February 2023 - source: Government of Iran

Brief Analysis

Raisi Visits China: More Symbolism Than Substance

The Iranian president’s high-profile Beijing trip reaffirmed the relationship’s limits—and will probably reinforce Tehran’s uninterest in nuclear compromise.

Feb 16, 2023

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Henry Rome

Fikra Forum

Iran’s Mounting Missile Threats to Neighboring Countries

Iran's ballistic missile program poses regional threats that require international solutions.

Feb 16, 2023

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Mohammad Abu Ghazleh

Fikra Forum

Variables the United States Should Consider on Dollar Smuggling in Iraq

U.S. pressure on Iraq to prevent dollar smuggling and dinar laundering can protect Iraq’s sovereignty and weaken Iran. But if executed without deliberation, this pressure could allow Russia and China to enhance their positions in the Middle East.

Feb 15, 2023

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Frzand Sherko

An Iranian state-media photo of the Aghab-44 underground air base - source: Iran state media

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran Unveils New Underground Air Base

The facility is seemingly intended for launching surprise maritime interdiction missions in the Persian Gulf region, mainly aimed at U.S. Fifth Fleet assets—though it probably won’t be able to accommodate Iran’s potential future fleet of Russian jets.

Feb 13, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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