Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Iran Faces Renewed Censure at Vienna Nuclear Meeting

A resolution condemning Tehran’s unwillingness to provide access to potential weaponization sites is an effective way to apply pressure, but also risks retaliation.

Nov 15, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Photo showing the Iron Dome defense system intercepting Hamas rockets over Ashkelon, Israel, in May 2021.

Articles & Testimony

Why Israel Is Hesitant About Supplying Ukraine with Air Defense Systems

Jerusalem remains concerned that angering the Russians could jeopardize its crucial national security interests in Syria, though domestic elements and U.S. officials are still pressing it to do more.

Nov 15, 2022

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Anna Borshchevskaya

An Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone in use by Russian forces in an attack on Kyiv, Ukraine - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

What Iran’s Drones in Ukraine Mean for the Future of War

Russia’s effective use of inexpensive Iranian aircraft points to challenges that other states may soon face elsewhere.

Nov 10, 2022

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Michael Knights
Alex Almeida

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Oil Exports Are Vulnerable to Sanctions

Iran continues to export significant volumes of oil, providing a key source of revenue for the regime—and a potential target for increased economic pressure.

Nov 9, 2022

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Henry Rome

Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021

Brief Analysis

The Islamic State Attacks the Islamic Republic

The jihadist group has been actively plotting against Iran for years, though the recent upsurge in threats from its Afghan branch may presage a new wave of cells and attacks inside the embattled Islamic Republic.

Oct 31, 2022

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Brief Analysis

Snapback Sanctions on Iran: More Bark Than Bite?

Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.

Oct 25, 2022

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Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badruddin al-Houthi addresses a rally in Sanaa, Yemen - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah’

The Houthi relationship with the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah has grown to the point that regardless of whether fighting in Yemen wanes, the Gulf movement may still play an integrated role in Iran’s future military adventures.

October 2022

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Michael Knights
Adnan al-Gabarni
Casey Coombs

Brief Analysis

Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests

The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks.

Oct 19, 2022

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

The UN Resolution Against Russia’s Ukraine Annexations: How Did the Middle East Vote?

Most of the region supported the measure, with one nay vote, a pair of notable changes since the March resolution, and several strong statements in support of territorial integrity.

Oct 18, 2022

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militias Pivot Away from U.S. Targets, Toward Kurdistan and Turkish Bases

Attack metrics prove that Iran-backed groups currently see more profit in striking "near enemies" than American forces.

Oct 17, 2022

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Eric Feely

◆ Militia Spotlight

Fikra Forum

As Anti-Regime Protests Swell Across Iran, Ethnic Minorities Demand Freedom and Equality

In order to create more lasting changes, the current wave of protests in Iran must be inclusive of the demands and expectations of ethnic minorities.

Oct 14, 2022

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Rahim Hamid
Ruth Riegler

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Fikra Forum

The Demonstrations for Mahsa Amini: A Turning Point in Iran

Despite the Iranian regime’s efforts to suppress recent protests, they have quickly spread to every corner of the country, making this one of the most important events in Iran in more than four decades and suggesting this could be a turning point for the country's future.

Oct 7, 2022

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Ziryan Rojhelati

Iranian men use Instagram - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Social Media in Iran’s Protests: A New Public Sphere?

Apps like Clubhouse and Instagram have greatly broadened the people’s ability to exchange ideas and even criticize the regime, but authorities have simultaneously subverted, coopted, and silenced these platforms at will.

Oct 6, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Fikra Forum

Iran’s Dilemma in Managing Shiite Conflicts in Iraq

Iran has recently adopted a more hands-off approach in Iraqi politics, hoping that the internal fractures will eventually work in their favor.

Oct 6, 2022

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Firas Elias

Baquer Namazi, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen who had been imprisoned in Iran, shakes hands with an Omani official in Muscat - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy

U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.

Oct 6, 2022

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Henry Rome

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Disinformation and the Zainab Isam al-Khazali Shooting

"Resistance" groups launched a coordinated and intentionally misleading anti-American media campaign to ease domestic pressure caused by the unrest in Iran.

Oct 5, 2022

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Smoke is seen at a Saudi oil facility in Abqaiq, 2019 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?

While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.

Oct 4, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iraqi Militia Group Makes Credible New Threat Against the Gulf States

The facade group in question tends to follow through on its warnings, so its latest rhetoric about using developments in Yemen as cause for new attacks should be taken seriously.

Oct 3, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iran's Ali Karimi, wearing green wristbands at a 2010 World Cup qualifier - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Celebrities, the Clergy, and Succession: Wild Cards in Iran’s Protests

By targeting celebs and financially coopting the clergy, the regime has revealed a great deal about what it sees as its greatest vulnerabilities.

Sep 30, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Fikra Forum

The Captagon War: Smuggling on the Jordanian-Syrian Border

As drug smuggling increases across Jordan’s border with Syria, Jordanian authorities need to seek solutions in both the security and social spheres.

Sep 30, 2022

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Saud Al-Sharafat

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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