Lebanon

Policy Analysis on Lebanon

The UNIFIL Follies Turn Deadly on the Israel-Lebanon Border

The recent murder of an Irish peacekeeper has once again exposed the international mission as a costly failure—one that should be drastically curtailed come renewal time this summer.

Jan 24, 2023

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David Schenker

Crown Prince Muhammad and President Xi walking in Riyadh.

Brief Analysis

Assessing Xi Jinping’s Middle East Trip

His discussions on nuclear proliferation, energy markets, defense cooperation, and other issues offered numerous contrasts with President Biden’s summer meetings in Saudi Arabia—as well as some unexpected criticism of Iran.

Dec 22, 2022

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Grant Rumley
Carol Silber
Eric Feely
Sarah Cahn
Sude Akgundogdu
Lauren von Thaden
Faris Almaari

Private Sean Rooney, an Irish soldier killed while serving with UNIFIL in Lebanon - source: Government of the Republic of Ireland

Brief Analysis

Expect More Violence If Hezbollah Isn’t Held Accountable for Murdering an Irish Soldier

Whether the group is pulling the trigger itself or inciting others to do so, its brazen disregard for Lebanese civil authority, international law, and Israeli redlines has reached a new low.

Dec 20, 2022

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Hanin Ghaddar

Fikra Forum

New Lebanon Opinion Poll Shows Continued Internal Dissatisfaction and Desire for International Partners

Lebanese respondents expressed positive views of the maritime deal and World Cup in Qatar, but seemed disappointed by almost everything else.

Dec 20, 2022

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Frances McDonough

A Lebanese protester holds a sign denouncing Iranian influence

Articles & Testimony

Iran Occupies Lebanon via Proxy, But the Lebanese Still Have Agency

Although not much can be done about disarming Hezbollah at the moment, any serious Western policy will need to focus on sanctioning the group’s domestic political enablers while engaging and protecting its Shia opponents.

Dec 13, 2022

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Hanin Ghaddar

Photo showing 1983 terrorist attack at U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.

Video

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah Turns 40: Implications of the Group’s Internal, Regional, and Strategic Shifts

Four experts assess Hezbollah's impact at home and abroad after decades of political maneuvering, military operations, and criminal activity.

Dec 2, 2022

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Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt
Mona Fayad
Akeel Abbas

Palestians on a Mediterranean beach in Gaza

Brief Analysis

Changing Population Patterns Will Reshape the Middle East

Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well.

Nov 22, 2022

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Patrick Clawson

Fikra Forum

In 2022 Polls, Views on U.S. Relations On Par with Other World Powers in the Middle East

Regional polls from March and August reveal shifting power dynamics, as economic conditions and relations with Israel continue to weigh on citizens’ minds.

Nov 9, 2022

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Frances McDonough

Fikra Forum

The Legacy of Lebanon’s October Revolution

Although the results of the October 2019 protests and the May 2022 elections brought hope to many Lebanese desperate for change, entrenched political deadlock and dysfunction are as bad as ever.

Nov 3, 2022

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Ibrahim Karkouti

Articles & Testimony

How to Make the Most of Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal

To maximize the benefits for the Lebanese people and regional stability, Washington must now increase pressure on Beirut to implement crucial reforms, particularly in the energy sector.

Oct 26, 2022

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Hanin Ghaddar

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badruddin al-Houthi addresses a rally in Sanaa, Yemen - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah’

The Houthi relationship with the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah has grown to the point that regardless of whether fighting in Yemen wanes, the Gulf movement may still play an integrated role in Iran’s future military adventures.

October 2022

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Michael Knights
Adnan al-Gabarni
Casey Coombs

Brief Analysis

The UN Resolution Against Russia’s Ukraine Annexations: How Did the Middle East Vote?

Most of the region supported the measure, with one nay vote, a pair of notable changes since the March resolution, and several strong statements in support of territorial integrity.

Oct 18, 2022

Articles & Testimony

When There's Good News About the Middle East, We Should Take Note

Israel’s maritime deal with Lebanon, facilitated by U.S. mediation efforts, reduces the risk of war and establishes a precedent in Lebanese recognition of a boundary line.

Oct 17, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Brief Analysis

Israel Debates the Lebanon Maritime Deal

The imminent election and the resultant rush to strike a deal are distracting from what could be a significant diplomatic and economic milestone for both countries.

Oct 13, 2022

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David Makovsky

Buoys mark the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon in the Mediterranean Sea - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Israel Falls for Lebanon’s Treaty Bait-and-Switch

The maritime border agreement is a mixed bag, demonstrating how far Israel will go to make peace with Arab states while doing little to decrease the prospects of an eventual war with Hezbollah.

Oct 11, 2022

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David Schenker

Brief Analysis

For Hezbollah, a Maritime Border Deal Is a Way to Avoid War

Hezbollah leaders are not ready to act on their many threats of major escalation, so Washington and its allies should prevent the group from reaping the nascent agreement’s reputational and financial benefits.

Sep 23, 2022

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Hanin Ghaddar

MEES map showing Israeli and Lebanese maritime border claims in the East Mediterranean.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Israel’s Karish Gas Field: Diplomatic Opportunity or Casus Belli?

Seven experts examine how the fraught decision to start production might affect Beirut’s negotiating stance, Hezbollah’s military calculus, U.S.-Israel relations, and other factors.

Sep 20, 2022

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Simon Henderson
Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt
Ehud Yaari
David Makovsky
David Schenker
Andrew J. Tabler

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

SDR Allocations in the Middle East: Helpful, but No Silver Bullet

Various governments have made good use of last year’s unprecedented IMF allocation, but the Ukraine war, ongoing debt issues, and other economic problems are a reminder that the region cannot sidestep deeper reforms indefinitely.

Sep 20, 2022

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Jonah Shrock

Brief Analysis

UN Forces in Lebanon Losing Ground in a Fast-Deteriorating Security Situation

Despite the troubling trends and escalatory incidents described in the latest UN report, the Security Council seems intent on maintaining a failed policy instead of taking urgent action to curb the growing threat of war.

Aug 5, 2022

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Assaf Orion

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Don’t Look Down: The Struggle Over Lebanon’s Airspace

To avoid past mistakes and counter the most potent threat on its borders, Israel requires an accurate intelligence picture in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah risk destabilizing the situation by chipping away at the IDF’s air superiority.

Jul 7, 2022

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Assaf Orion

Supported by the

Rubin Family Arab Politics Program

The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Matthew Levitt

Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute.

Hanin Ghaddar

Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.

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Lebanon

Policy Analysis on Lebanon

Rubin Family Arab Politics Program

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Policy Analysis on Lebanon

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