Middle East

Interviews with thirteen activists reveal a deep sense of disappointment but also a shared conviction that a new reform movement will eventually rise and deliver lasting change to the region.

The IS military project led not only to the announcement of a “caliphate,” but to the proliferation of jihadist franchises that devastated countries, displaced millions, and killed tens of thousands.

To encourage a new multilateralism, Europe will need to gain credibility on hard security matters, the United States will need to reimagine how it deals with allies, and both will need to figure out when to let Middle East countries handle Middle East problems.

Reinvesting in civilian capabilities, sharing the burden with other actors, and assessing the widening ideological scope of the extremist threat will be central to any effective program of action.

In a region where publics are clamoring for healthcare, housing, jobs, and freedom of expression, progress toward electoral democracy need not always be the top priority.

Turkey has recently pushed the PKK fight from its own turf and blunted challenges in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf, all while strengthening its defense export sector.

The complexity of Iraq’s challenges might prompt some U.S. officials to balk, but a constructive policy can help advance both Iraqi and American interests in areas ranging from counterterrorism to economic development.

To meet future security challenges, the United States will need to reassess how it deters adversaries and conducts security force assistance in the region, while becoming more proficient in gray zone operations and information activities. Addressing cultural factors and trends such as climate change will require solutions outside the traditional national security toolkit.

By devoting resources to areas of concentrated recruitment, the Biden administration can reduce the scope of future Middle East conflicts along with the likelihood that U.S. troops will once again be drawn into them.