Palestinians

What factors will shape Israel's decisionmaking, and how would unilateral annexation affect its relations with the Palestinians, Arab neighbors, Europe, and U.S. legislators?

By making what appears to be a politically motivated case, the prosecutor’s office runs the risk of undermining both the main Israeli-Palestinian legal framework and the ICC’s role as an unbiased agent of international law.

Even if Netanyahu steps away from the precipice this month, the problem will not dissipate until the White House stops incentivizing annexation with offers of American recognition.

The idea that Israelis might embrace annexation seemed extremely improbable just a few years ago, so how did we get here?

The Trump administration has signaled that it won’t be bound by Netanyahu’s summer rush schedule on the issue, adding to the many foreign and domestic factors that could lead the prime minister to delay or curtail the move.

The latest row over prisoner payments has highlighted the PA’s longstanding legitimacy deficit and its potential inability to control events on the ground if public unrest escalates this summer.

Throughout his tenure as leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas has studiously avoided grooming a successor, instead consolidating his control over numerous Palestinian entities and sidelining officials he perceived as threatening to his rule. When he eventually exits the scene, Abbas will leave many leadership roles to be filled—including in the PLO, Fatah movement, and national security agencies.

Although the pandemic’s full regional consequences remain murky, some early trends are becoming clear, from caution among certain proxy patrons, to escalation among others, and a looming financial crunch for all.

The question of whether the ICC is able to proceed with cases against Israeli and Palestinian officials may hinge on fuzzy international legal criteria and competing arguments by sympathetic governments.