Policy Analysis

When Secretary of State James Baker meets Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz in Geneva on Wednesday, hope remains that Iraq will finally agree to withdraw from Kuwait. But throughout the Gulf crisis, Western observers have tended to underestimate Saddam Hussein's willingness to go to war and overestimate his willingness to

Today's summit meeting between the leaders of Egypt, Syria, Libya, and Sudan highlights an important trend emerging in the Gulf crisis: support in the Arab world for the U.S.-led anti-Iraq coalition is growing, while Iraq finds itself increasingly deserted. Pro-Iraqi demonstrations have dwindled; the cheers for Saddam Hussein have died

Executive SummaryIraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990, dramatically transformed the Middle East and America's relationship with it. While seeking success in today's crisis, the United States must also focus on how to promote the long-term prospects for regional stability. A critical objective should be to help forge a

Saddam Hussein's explicit threats against Israel have drawn renewed attention to the prospects for an Iraqi-Israeli confrontation. Though this cannot be ruled out, it seems unlikely that Israel and Iraq will become engaged in hostilities early on in a conflict because neither country would find fighting the other to be

In voting for UN Security Council Resolution 681 yesterday, the Bush Administration made its first payoff for passage of Security Resolution 678 authorizing the use of force to oust Saddam Hussein. The Gang of Four -- Cuba, Malaysia, Yemen, and Colombia -- had threatened to hold up Resolution 678 by

Eduard Shevardnadze's dramatic resignation as Soviet foreign minister is bad news for the Gulf crisis: His departure will be welcomed by Saddam Hussein and much-lamented by James Baker. Shevardnadze's Role Since the crisis' first days, when he stood shoulder to shoulder with the Secretary of State to condemn Iraq's invasion

How important is air power? This question dominates the current debate about U.S. military options against Iraq, and has a significance for the shape of U.S. forces following the current crisis. Though the military significance of U.S. air power is uncertain, the United States should fully exploit this capability if

All observers agree that the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait caught the United States by surprise. By the same token, the U.S. reaction to the invasion was equally, if not more, unexpected by Saddam Hussein. Given the policy of appeasement the Bush Administration pursued toward Iraq prior to August 2, Saddam

In London a few days ago, Iraqi officials approached two bankers who have previously done business with Baghdad, seeking to arrange future ventures. "But," asked the British financiers, "what about the crisis and the embargo?" "The crisis is already over," replied the Iraqis. And, they insist, Iraq has won. To

The upcoming U.S.-Iraq talks on the Gulf crisis pose a real challenge to President Bush and Secretary of State James Baker. Paradoxically, the more eager the United States appears for a peaceful solution to the crisis, the less chance there is of achieving the objective of Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait

Today's meeting in Washington between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze represents another important step in the ongoing process of Soviet-Israeli rapprochement. Not only should the meeting advance the prospects for an early resumption of full diplomatic relations between the two countries, it might also

With the UN Security Council debating a resolution on the Palestinian issue and Saddam Hussein demanding that the Gulf crisis be linked to the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Middle East peace process is again floating to the top of the international community's agenda. Despite the rhetoric in New York and Baghdad

Israeli Prime Minister Shamir meets with President Bush next week for their first discussions since well before the Gulf crisis. This meeting offers a critical opportunity to repair their personal relations, coordinate approaches to the Gulf crisis and the peace process, and address Israeli security and economic concerns. If Bush

Economic sanctions are making Iraq poorer day by day. The Iraqi economy is being hollowed out. The diet of the Iraqi people has already suffered markedly, with a drop of at least 25 percent in calories consumed. Yet despite all this, it would be wrong to jump to the conclusion

Much of the Middle East is reacting with anxiety and confusion to President Bush's proposal for top level talks between the United States and Iraq. Whatever rationales Washington has for taking this step, many in the region perceive it as the beginning of U.S. concessions to Saddam Hussein. As soon

Executive Summary Jerusalem's transcendent characteristic is its uniqueness -- different from that of any other city or community. It remains, after 4,000 years, a magnetic focus of mystic, historical, emotional, religious, cultural, political and strategic attention. The city retains undimmed significance for adherents of the world's three great monotheistic religions

The Gulf crisis has set into motion several fundamental strategic changes along Israel's eastern front that, taken together, could dramatically alter Israel's security requirements in the West Bank. The Israeli government would then find it even more ddifficult to offer far-reaching concessions in negotiations with the Palestinians. Three major changes

As yesterday's vote in the Security Council again demonstrates, the cohesion of the anti-Iraq coalition is far stronger than most observers had originally predicted. Even Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi, the most maverick, anti-Western Arab leader, has been cooperating with the coalition, respecting the UN sanctions against Iraq and calling for

President Bush and other senior administration officials have focused attention on the threat posed by a nuclear Iraq to America's interests in the Middle East. It is generally agreed that Iraq can develop a sizeable nuclear military capability within the next decade. But the significance of this program in both

Thursday's UN Security Council vote authorizing the use of force to effect Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait constitutes a major step toward war in the Gulf. The effect of the resolution is to deliver an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein: "leave Kuwait by January 15 or else you will soon be forced