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Map illustrating strategies for preserving autonomy in northeast Syria.
Brief Analysis
How to Preserve the Autonomy of Northeast Syria
To offset the destabilizing measures coming from Turkey and the Assad axis, Western governments need to offer more development assistance—but in a targeted way that reassures local authorities and minimizes mismanagement.
۱۵ مارس ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Articles & Testimony
Can Turkey and the UAE Help Break Libya’s Deadlock?
Finding a compromise timeline for elections will be delicate, but the recent thaw in relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi removes a significant external impediment to progress.
۱۴ مارس ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Ben Fishman
Illustration of chess pieces and the Russian and Ukrainian flags - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
How Will the Ukraine Crisis Affect Middle East Policy?
Three experts discuss whether the war might alter Washington’s calculus on rapprochement with Turkey, regional military deployments, and wider great power competition.
۱۰ مارس ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Grant Rumley
Tunisian citizens who fled the Russian invasion of Ukraine arrive in Tunis - Source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Middle East Students Stranded in Ukraine
Regional governments are scrambling to repatriate thousands of their trapped citizens, and the United States could play a key role in facilitating their safe return.
۹ مارس ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Carol Silber
  • Calvin Wilder
Turkish President Erdogan meets Ukrainian President Zelenskiy in Kyiv - source: Reuters
مقاله‌ها و دیدگاه‌ها
بحران اوکراین: ملاقات شرق و غرب؟
در فرضیه، ایران، ترکیه، کشورهای حوزه خلیج فارس و دیگر بازیگران منطقه‌ انواعی از اهرم‌های بالقوه برای تاثیرگذاری بر سیاست مسکو دارند، اما بررسی دقیق مسئله نشان می‌دهد که بیشتر این اهرم‌ها در بهترین حالت کاربرد محدودی دارند.
۷ مارس ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • دیوید پولاک
Brief Analysis
Israel Juggles Diplomacy with Turkey, Cyprus, and Greece
A high-level visit to Athens was notionally about climate issues, but it also took advantage of a potential shift in regional politics, including with Turkey.
۱ مارس ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Simon Henderson
A Ukrainian flag flies at a naval base in Crimea in 2014 - source: Reuters
تحلیل کوتاه
واکنش کشورهای خاورمیانه به بحران اوکراین
تاکنون، اظهارات رسمی از سوی کشورهای منطقه متفاوت بوده: از مخالفت با اقدامات روسیه گرفته تا برخورد با آن به عنوان دنباله طبیعی سیاست موجود.
۲۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • مارگارت دین
  • هانا لابو
  • کارول سیلبر
Flames emerge from flare stacks at Nahr Bin Umar oil field, north of Basra, Iraq - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Death of Oil Federalism? Implications of a New Iraqi Court Ruling
The legal decision and its political fallout are threatening some of the country’s key interests, including its aspirations toward federalism, its relations with Turkey, and its ability to attract sorely needed international investment.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Bilal Wahab
Articles & Testimony
The Third Age of Erdogan’s Foreign Policy
Turkey has been forced to adopt a new approach abroad, presenting a valuable opportunity that the United States and Europe need to seize quickly.
۱۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Rich Outzen
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Battle for al-Sinaa Prison: The Enduring Islamic State Threat in Syria
The military response to a major prison attack exhibited the strength of the U.S.-SDF partnership, but it also highlighted ongoing counterterrorism shortcomings.
۳۱ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Ido Levy
Brief Analysis
Reality Check for Israel’s Natural Gas Plans
Washington has logical reasons to step away from an undersea pipeline project in the East Mediterranean, though the decision effectively kills Israel’s improbable dream of becoming a significant gas supplier to Europe.
۲۷ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Sailors aboard a Turkish Naval Forces warship - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey Help Washington If Russia Invades Ukraine?
Fears of Russian military power may keep Ankara out of the spotlight, but its Black Sea calculations and Crimean Tatar sympathies indicate a willingness to assist behind the scenes if necessary.
۲۶ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Turkish president Erdogan - Source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s End Game: Will He Undermine Turkish Democracy to Stay in Power?
The president is very unlikely to win the next election fair and square, so he may well resort to undermining the vote, disregarding the result, or even fomenting a January 6-like insurrection.
۴ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۲
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
A Turkish soldier stands guard at a rally. Image source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Turkey vs. the YPG: What’s Next?
As Ankara and Moscow mull a potential exchange of Syria border incursions for Idlib concessions, Erdogan risks endangering his intertwined goals of improving Turkey’s economy and minimizing tensions with Washington.
۱۶ نوامبر ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Helping Syria’s Kurds Weigh Their Options
By reassuring its Kurdish allies via temporary diplomatic, military, and economic measures, Washington can gain greater leverage over Russia and other players at acceptably low risk and cost.
۱۵ نوامبر ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s F-16 Request May Not Stave Off the Inevitable
Washington and Ankara have significant diplomatic and security incentives for considering the deal, while rejecting it outright would likely hasten Erdogan’s drift into Putin’s orbit.
۲۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • Grant Rumley
  • Soner Cagaptay
Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Egypt display the victory and Rabaa signs at a protest
Brief Analysis
The Muslim Brotherhood Sees Cairo’s Flirtation with Biden as an Opportunity
Many Brotherhood members seem eager to exploit recent U.S.-Egyptian gestures on human rights, but there is little likelihood that the Sisi government will reconcile with the fractured, unpopular Islamist group.
۲۷ اکتبر ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • Haisam Hassanein
Rouhani, Putin, Erdogan
گزارش‌های تفصیلی
دیپلماسی مثلث‌ها:
تحلیل استراتژی روسیه در سوریه
مسکو بارها بازیگران سوریه را در مقابل هم به بازی گرفته تا منافع خود را تامین کند و رژیم اسد را در قدرت نگهدارد.
۱۷ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • آنا بورشچفسکایا
  • اندرو جی. تابلر
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy on the Mediterranean and the Role of PMCs
Although Biden may not see Russia as his top priority, Moscow’s proxy military activities in the Mediterranean are directly aimed at diluting Washington’s leverage in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
۱۰ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
HDP protests, Turkey
Articles & Testimony
What's Happening with the HDP?
Tracking Legislators in Turkey's Liberal, Pro-Kurdish Party
Erdogan knows that a flourishing opposition could mean his political demise.
۲۶ اوت ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Umut Can Fidan
  • Nibras Khudaida

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