Turkey

Publicly committing to a ceasefire is a positive development, but many details still need to be resolved with active U.S. support, especially security arrangements in central Libya and the speedy resumption of oil exports.

Putin set a trap for Erdogan long ago, and because the Turkish leader woke up too late to his predicament, he now has little leverage in the unequal bilateral relationship.

Even if acute diplomatic differences are resolved, low natural gas prices will have a cooling effect on regional energy initiatives.

Turkey’s president seems focused on cementing his legacy and boosting his popularity with voters, but the move is more likely to damage the country’s international brand.

Deeper Turkish engagement with the Syrian Kurds would be helpful, but any such talks need to be linked with ongoing efforts to contain the Islamic State and advance the UN’s broader Geneva process.

President Erdogan’s ever-tightening circle of policy influencers has lagged behind on proposing innovative solutions to the pandemic, giving other politicians an opening to become the main drivers of national change.

A boost in Turkish drones and air defense systems enabled forces in Tripoli to establish local air superiority and ease pressure on the capital, leaving each side’s foreign patrons with tough choices about whether to escalate further or take steps to halt the fighting.

Many aspects of Iranian engagement with the Eurasian Economic Union seem paltry, but the bloc offers a semblance of assured trade, diplomacy, and counter-Western alignment that could still be meaningful to Tehran amid multiple crises.

Ceasefire agreements and contagion concerns will likely limit Turkish operations in Syria for the time being, but Ankara has no such constraints in its Libya proxy war.