Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

A Turkish Baraktar TB2 drone - source: Reuters

Drones and Resets: The New Era of Turkish Foreign Policy

The Ukraine war has not only reaffirmed Erdogan’s remarkable political survival skills, but also highlighted the degree to which Ankara’s improved diplomatic standing is traceable to its success in exporting an innovative drone-centered military operational approach.

Summer 2022

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Soner Cagaptay
Rich Outzen

U.S._and_Turkish_military_forces_conduct_second_joint_ground_patrol_inside_of_the_secur

Fikra Forum

The Impending Turkish Invasion: Repercussions for the SDF-Washington Relationship

A Turkish attack on northern Syria would bring new waves of internal displacement and increased humanitarian suffering, weaken the SDF and the Autonomous Administration, and erode these institutions’ the trust of the United States.

Jul 25, 2022

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Baraa Sabri

Sabereen News threat to Istanbul - cropped

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Claiming Without Claiming: Iraqi Militia Responses to Turkish Attacks

Sabereen News has been operating as the clearinghouse for coverage of "resistance" strikes on Turkish targets, nodding to specific facade groups and hinting at future attacks inside Turkey.

Jul 22, 2022

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will the Putin-Erdogan-Raisi Summit Spark a Turkish Incursion into Syria?

Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.

Jul 18, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay
Andrew J. Tabler

Photo of an oil facility in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Video

Brief Analysis

The KRG Turns Thirty: The Future of U.S.-Kurdish Relations in Iraq (Part 3)

Three experts evaluate the KRG’s oil and gas industry and discuss the growing urgency of resolving its disputes with Baghdad.

Jun 28, 2022

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James Jeffrey
Matthew Amitrano
Bilal Wahab

◆ The KRG Turns Thirty

Turkish president Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels

Brief Analysis

What Biden Faces with Erdogan at the NATO Summit

The Turkish leader has been trying to leverage Sweden and Finland’s accession to weaken international support for the YPG in Syria, but he may be content with symbolic concessions that boost his reelection chances.

Jun 28, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay

Fikra Forum

NATO Membership for Sweden: Between Turkey and the Kurds

With the NATO summit approaching, Sweden is now caught between Turkey’s demands and its own complicated domestic politics.

Jun 27, 2022

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Magnus Norell

Drawing of oil pipeline, Iraq, Kurdistan

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

The Necessary U.S. Role in Fixing the Baghdad-Kurdistan Energy Dispute

A targeted intervention could aid American interests and the global effort to find a substitute for Russian and Iranian oil and gas.

Jun 27, 2022

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Michael Knights

Turkish official Hulusi Akar with Somali soldier

In-Depth Reports

Turkish Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Trade volume has soared and projects like the development of Sudan’s Suakin Port have drawn notice, but Ankara faces economic headwinds in its bid to keep the momentum going.

Jun 23, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay
Spencer Cook
Amal Soukkarieh

Brief Analysis

Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency

As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria.

Jun 8, 2022

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Ahrar Sinjar: Militia Employment of the Yazidi Community

Ahrar Sinjar is a worrisome example of Iran-backed militias using minorities to undertake cross-border rocket attacks and build terrorist cells in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

May 26, 2022

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Alex Almeida
Anwar al-Zamani

◆ Militia Spotlight

Palestians on a Mediterranean beach in Gaza

Articles & Testimony

Shifting East Mediterranean Tides: From Conflict to Club Med?

Although the worst-case scenarios of just a few years ago are in abeyance, the best-case ones of transformative cooperation are also still out of reach.

May 2022

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David Pollock

Articles & Testimony

The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa

A former Pentagon advisor testifies on how the war might affect Moscow's ability to sell arms to MENA governments and project power in the region.

May 18, 2022

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Grant Rumley

A Turkish Bayraktor UAV on display at an airshow - source: Reuters

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Muqawama's Duel with Turkey

Turkish counterstrikes may have instilled caution in militia rocketeers, suggesting more attacks may come against U.S. and Kurdish targets instead.

May 17, 2022

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Alex Almeida
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

A Ghauri nuclear-capable missile on parade in Pakistan

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Renewed Saudi-Pakistan Contacts Revive Nuclear Fears

Deadlock in the Iran nuclear talks may prompt action by Riyadh, with Pakistani support.

Apr 27, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Turkey's Lethal Weapon

From Ukraine to Syria, drones are reshaping Erdogan’s foreign policy.

Apr 27, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay
Rich Outzen

An Israeli security officer stands guard at the scene of a terrorist shooting in Tel Aviv, March 2022.

Articles & Testimony

A Badly Needed New Approach to Quelling the Violence

A U.S.-Israel attempt to compel Qatar, the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas to end terrorist attacks against Israelis could ultimately help reset dynamics, even if such a move generates a costly short-term backlash.

Apr 25, 2022

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Ehud Yaari

Brief Analysis

French-Turkish Relations: Foes to Friends?

The Ukraine war has greatly boosted their diplomatic and military cooperation, but lingering friction over Syria, Libya, and Mediterranean issues will need to be handled carefully if this rapprochement is to endure.

Apr 20, 2022

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Louis Dugit-Gros
Pierre Morcos
Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

Between Maritime Law and Politics in the East Mediterranean

Given the region’s fraught history and piecemeal legal frameworks, the parties and their allies should focus more on the political, economic, and security concerns underlying their legal disputes.

Mar 24, 2022

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Alexander Loengarov

Photo of Turkish and Taliban officials meeting in Ankara, October 2021.

Brief Analysis

Turkey Calls for Recognition of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate

Ankara has taken a leading role in rehabilitating the group’s image, but many other countries have reached out as well, making eventual recognition a fait accompli.

Mar 17, 2022

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Supported by the

Turkish Research Program

Since its inception in 1995, The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program has established itself as the most influential center in Washington for research and information on Turkey -- a predominantly Muslim, secular, and democratic U.S. ally.

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Soner Cagaptay

Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Turkey

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