Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

Map illustrating strategies for preserving autonomy in northeast Syria.

How to Preserve the Autonomy of Northeast Syria

To offset the destabilizing measures coming from Turkey and the Assad axis, Western governments need to offer more development assistance—but in a targeted way that reassures local authorities and minimizes mismanagement.

Mar 15, 2022

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Fabrice Balanche

Articles & Testimony

Can Turkey and the UAE Help Break Libya’s Deadlock?

Finding a compromise timeline for elections will be delicate, but the recent thaw in relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi removes a significant external impediment to progress.

Mar 14, 2022

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Ben Fishman

Illustration of chess pieces and the Russian and Ukrainian flags - source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

How Will the Ukraine Crisis Affect Middle East Policy?

Three experts discuss whether the war might alter Washington’s calculus on rapprochement with Turkey, regional military deployments, and wider great power competition.

Mar 10, 2022

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Soner Cagaptay
Grant Rumley

Tunisian citizens who fled the Russian invasion of Ukraine arrive in Tunis - Source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Middle East Students Stranded in Ukraine

Regional governments are scrambling to repatriate thousands of their trapped citizens, and the United States could play a key role in facilitating their safe return.

Mar 9, 2022

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Carol Silber
Calvin Wilder

A Ukrainian flag flies at a naval base in Crimea in 2014 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Middle East Responses to the Ukraine Crisis

So far, official statements from the region have ranged from rejecting Russia’s moves to treating them as a natural extension of existing policy.

Updated Mar 4, 2022

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Margaret Dene
Hannah Labow
Carol Silber

Brief Analysis

Israel Juggles Diplomacy with Turkey, Cyprus, and Greece

A high-level visit to Athens was notionally about climate issues, but it also took advantage of a potential shift in regional politics, including with Turkey.

Mar 1, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Flames emerge from flare stacks at Nahr Bin Umar oil field, north of Basra, Iraq - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

The Death of Oil Federalism? Implications of a New Iraqi Court Ruling

The legal decision and its political fallout are threatening some of the country’s key interests, including its aspirations toward federalism, its relations with Turkey, and its ability to attract sorely needed international investment.

Feb 18, 2022

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Bilal Wahab

Articles & Testimony

The Third Age of Erdogan’s Foreign Policy

Turkey has been forced to adopt a new approach abroad, presenting a valuable opportunity that the United States and Europe need to seize quickly.

Feb 17, 2022

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Rich Outzen
Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

Battle for al-Sinaa Prison: The Enduring Islamic State Threat in Syria

The military response to a major prison attack exhibited the strength of the U.S.-SDF partnership, but it also highlighted ongoing counterterrorism shortcomings.

Jan 31, 2022

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Ido Levy

Turkish President Erdogan meets Ukrainian President Zelenskiy in Kyiv - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Ukraine Crisis: East Meets Mideast?

In theory, Iran, Turkey, the Gulf, and other regional players offer potential leverage of various kinds over Moscow, but closer examination suggests that most of these links are of limited utility at best.

Jan 28, 2022

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David Pollock

Brief Analysis

Reality Check for Israel’s Natural Gas Plans

Washington has logical reasons to step away from an undersea pipeline project in the East Mediterranean, though the decision effectively kills Israel’s improbable dream of becoming a significant gas supplier to Europe.

Jan 27, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Sailors aboard a Turkish Naval Forces warship - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will Turkey Help Washington If Russia Invades Ukraine?

Fears of Russian military power may keep Ankara out of the spotlight, but its Black Sea calculations and Crimean Tatar sympathies indicate a willingness to assist behind the scenes if necessary.

Jan 26, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay

Turkish president Erdogan - Source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Erdogan’s End Game: Will He Undermine Turkish Democracy to Stay in Power?

The president is very unlikely to win the next election fair and square, so he may well resort to undermining the vote, disregarding the result, or even fomenting a January 6-like insurrection.

Jan 4, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay

A Turkish soldier stands guard at a rally. Image source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Turkey vs. the YPG: What’s Next?

As Ankara and Moscow mull a potential exchange of Syria border incursions for Idlib concessions, Erdogan risks endangering his intertwined goals of improving Turkey’s economy and minimizing tensions with Washington.

Nov 16, 2021

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Soner Cagaptay

Articles & Testimony

Helping Syria’s Kurds Weigh Their Options

By reassuring its Kurdish allies via temporary diplomatic, military, and economic measures, Washington can gain greater leverage over Russia and other players at acceptably low risk and cost.

Nov 15, 2021

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David Pollock

Brief Analysis

Turkey’s F-16 Request May Not Stave Off the Inevitable

Washington and Ankara have significant diplomatic and security incentives for considering the deal, while rejecting it outright would likely hasten Erdogan’s drift into Putin’s orbit.

Oct 28, 2021

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Grant Rumley
Soner Cagaptay

Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Egypt display the victory and Rabaa signs at a protest

Brief Analysis

The Muslim Brotherhood Sees Cairo’s Flirtation with Biden as an Opportunity

Many Brotherhood members seem eager to exploit recent U.S.-Egyptian gestures on human rights, but there is little likelihood that the Sisi government will reconcile with the fractured, unpopular Islamist group.

Oct 27, 2021

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Haisam Hassanein

Articles & Testimony

U.S. Policy on the Mediterranean and the Role of PMCs

Although Biden may not see Russia as his top priority, Moscow’s proxy military activities in the Mediterranean are directly aimed at diluting Washington’s leverage in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

Sep 10, 2021

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Articles & Testimony

What's Happening with the HDP?

Tracking Legislators in Turkey's Liberal, Pro-Kurdish Party

Erdogan knows that a flourishing opposition could mean his political demise.

Aug 26, 2021

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Soner Cagaptay
Umut Can Fidan
Nibras Khudaida

In-Depth Reports

Deals, Drones, and National Will:

The New Era in Turkish Power Projection

Turkey has recently pushed the PKK fight from its own turf and blunted challenges in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf, all while strengthening its defense export sector.

Jul 9, 2021

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Rich Outzen

Supported by the

Turkish Research Program

Since its inception in 1995, The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program has established itself as the most influential center in Washington for research and information on Turkey -- a predominantly Muslim, secular, and democratic U.S. ally.

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Soner Cagaptay

Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Turkey

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Policy Analysis on Turkey

Turkish Research Program

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